IDC: Smartphone sales will grow in 2024 after two years of decline

According to a report by International Data Corporation (IDC), the global smartphone market is expected to grow by 6.2% in shipments in 2024, reaching 1.24 billion units. This will be an improvement after two difficult years of decline in 2022 and 2023. However, long-term forecasts suggest a modest CAGR of 2.6% through 2028.

Key Growth Drivers

1. Android Smartphones: Android devices, especially budget models, will make the largest contribution to the growth in shipments in 2024. In regions such as China, they will grow by 7.6%, significantly higher than iPhone shipments (0.4%).
2. Foldables: Despite a decline in Q3 2024 (-7.4%), foldable smartphones will grow by 10.5% for the full year. The share of these devices will grow by 15.9% at a CAGR of 15.9% through 2028.

Long-term trends

• Extending device lifespans: Modern smartphones receive long-term support for updates, which increases their lifespan. This, combined with the growth of the smartphone market, is slowing down overall shipment growth.
• Impact of Generative AI: Its impact on demand is limited so far. Although experts expect that by 2028, 70% of smartphones will be equipped with AI features, the current level of their implementation is insufficient to stimulate purchasing activity. The advantage is still maintained by flagship models.

sma, the growth of the secondary market and the search for innovative technologies to stimulate demand.