Apple will overtake Samsung in smartphone production for the first time in 14 years

Counterpoint Research analysts predict that in 2025 Apple will return to the position of the largest smartphone manufacturer for the first time in more than a decade, overtaking Samsung in terms of shipments. The report states that the Cupertino company will be able to maintain its leadership until at least 2029, relying on stable demand and successful product updates.

Smartphone market in 2025

According to researchers, the global smartphone market grew by just over three percent in 2025. Among the companies that showed noticeable progress, Apple stands out, having demonstrated a nine percent increase in shipments in the third quarter. The dynamics were strengthened by the launch of the iPhone 17 series, which in key regions showed better results than the previous iPhone 16 line.

The report says that the current device refresh cycle has become an additional factor affecting Apple’s forecasts. A significant portion of users who bought smartphones during the pandemic surge in demand are now reaching the stage of replacing their devices. Analysts also note that between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, more than three hundred and fifty million used iPhones were sold on the global market. According to Counterpoint, a significant portion of these buyers will plan to switch to new models in the coming years. Senior analyst Yang Wang notes that it is the combination of these factors that forms the underlying demand that supports the growth in supply.

Apple’s plans

In the first half of 2026, Apple plans to release the iPhone 17e model, and at the end of the year, the first foldable iPhone is expected to appear, which, due to its high price, could significantly affect the company’s revenue. The delay in the introduction of Apple Intelligence features, according to analysts, did not affect sales, and the redesign of 2027 models may further stimulate demand.

Samsung’s plans

Samsung, despite losing its first position, will show a five percent increase in shipments in 2025. The company changed its approach to the A-line, strengthening the characteristics and adjusting its pricing policy, which particularly affected sales in emerging markets, including India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. At the same time, Counterpoint believes that Samsung will not be ready to return to leadership before 2029.

Chinese manufacturers, actively promoting themselves in foreign markets, are also focusing on regions with growing demand, in particular in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. They are gradually expanding their premium model portfolios in an attempt to reduce their reliance on budget segments and increase margins. At the same time, companies are facing supply chain challenges due to the high demand for memory generated by the AI ​​industry, which is complicating planning and production processes.