Global smartphone market in 2026: worst performance in 13 years

The global smartphone market has faced significant challenges, with device shipments down 11% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research. This was the worst performance for the second quarter since 2013.

Causes of the market decline

Analysts call the main driver of the negative dynamics of a “memory crisis.” The problem of shortage and high cost of components negatively affects production. This has forced smartphone manufacturers to increase the final prices of their products. The budget segment turned out to be the most sensitive to changes: the rising cost of devices forces consumers to postpone the planned update of gadgets.

Power balance in the market

The consequences of the crisis have been unevenly distributed: brands whose strategy is based on selling affordable devices are under maximum pressure. The current distribution of market shares is as follows:

• Samsung: Market leader with a 24% share. The company’s position was strengthened thanks to good sales of the Galaxy A series and stable demand in different regions.
• Apple: Retained a record 20% of the market for the second quarter. Despite the overall slowdown, demand for iPhone remains strong.
• Xiaomi: Closes the top three with 12%.
• Oppo and Vivo:Occupy 11% and 8% of the global market respectively.

What does the future hold for the smartphone market?

Counterpoint analysts do not give optimistic forecasts for the short term. The industry is expected to remain under pressure until the end of 2026 due to constraints in memory supply chains. While flagship models will likely weather the downturn more easily, affordable devices will see declining consumer interest due to component shortages and forced retail price increases. The market will likely begin to recover only when the availability and cost of necessary components stabilizes.