Career start under threat: AI deprives young professionals of their first jobs

The rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies is beginning to significantly change the landscape of the global labor market. According to a new study by consulting firm Oliver Wyman, AI is reducing the demand for new hires, forcing managers to prefer people with a wealth of practical experience.

Oliver Wyman Research

A survey conducted in the US among CEOs of large companies revealed a worrying trend for those just starting their careers. According to a report published by Bloomberg, more than 40% of executives have announced plans to reduce the number of junior positions in the next 1-2 years. The focus of employers is shifting towards middle and senior employees (Middle and Senior).

Interestingly, only 17% of respondents plan to increase the share of young specialists. This is a radical change in the situation compared to last year, when the priorities of the companies were opposite.

Key characteristics of change: data from Harvard and Stanford

The tendency to replace junior staff with automated systems is also confirmed by academic circles. A Harvard University study showed that companies that implement generative AI actually reduce job vacancies for newcomers while maintaining steady employment rates for experienced employees. This creates a “traffic jam” at the entrance to the profession.

Additional statistics are provided by Stanford University. According to their November report, young workers are 16% more likely to lose their jobs in industries most exposed to AI. Programming, analytics and copywriting remain the areas of greatest risk.

Why is AI replacing newcomers?

The main reason for such changes is the active use of “artificial intelligence agents”. At the current stage of development of AI technology, it is able to cope with the tasks of junior personnel with almost no loss of quality. Such tasks include:

• Writing basic code (at the level of a beginner developer);
• Primary evaluation and qualification of potential customers (lead generation);
• Routine data processing and reporting.

John Romeo, director of research at the Oliver Wyman Forum, explains that now it is the middle and senior levels of employees that are seen as levers for improving productivity. Companies are looking for those who already know how to solve complex cases and have practical skills.

Despite the general trend, there are exceptions. An example of another strategy is the IBM corporation. In February, the company announced plans to triple the lease on its initial US positions. For this, the corporation intends to adapt job descriptions to new realities, where the use of AI is a basic requirement for a candidate.

Risks for the industry: should we expect a shortage of specialists?

Experts warn that the current savings on junior specialists can become a “time mine”. The head of Oliver Wyman’s global leadership area, Helen Leis, notes: if you don’t train young people today, then in a few years the market will face a critical shortage of experienced professionals, because the “senior ranks” simply won’t have anyone to grow from.

After all, AI agents cannot fully replace experience, critical thinking, and responsibility in decision-making — qualities that can only be developed over many years of practice. However, to enter the industry, future specialists will have to master AI tools now in order to remain competitive.